BEYOND SG

Wishing all Indian readers a Happy Deepavali!

George Yeo

An Empire Governed by Rituals

China is so big its leaders can only govern by giving broad directions. A China scholar told me once that imperial policies in Chinese dynasties would usually include a statement that every policy has be adaped to local conditions. Under the Communist Party, the party line expressing the overall intent is studied down to the lowest levels of government. But the details are for local authorities to settle. There is therefore a constant tension between the centre and the periphery.

In the governance of China, ritual is indispensable. Without ritual, there would be chaos. Ritual is the protocol which enables the pieces to fit together. It has been said that the governing principle of Chinese society is not law (法) but propriety (礼). Hence. 礼貌，礼堂，礼物，all serving the purpose of setting proper relationships in place.

I attended one such grand ritual on Friday, the opening ceremony of the Asia Europe Leaders Meeting at the Great Hall of the People. Arriving two hours in advance, we were sat in the proper order, waiting for the leaders to arrive. Each was individually greeted by PM Wen. They gathered in a waiting room and at the appointed time, marched onto the stage in precise order with fanfare, all of us standing up to applaud. PM Wen then introduced President Hu who gave the opening speech. Security was extremely tight. Empty seats in the hall were all filled up by students so that everything looked right.

With the oversized proportions, a certain awe and ceremony enveloped all the delegates, so that everyone felt naturally that he should conform and be on his best behaviour. No force was necessary. It is an empire governed by ritual.

George Yeo

Harvard University Professor Michael Porter

When I was at the Harvard Business School in the mid-80's, Michael Porter was already a superstar. Today he advises governments and routinely gives briefings to heads of state. I count myself lucky to be one of his friends. Some years ago, he got me to address his class after it discussed the Singapore case. It was a lively session which he taped and subsequently packaged for wider distribution. There is considerable interest in the Singapore model among business schools around the world. He likes Singapore but doesn't hold back on his criticisms.

I dropped by at his office on Saturday to thank him for helping Singapore establish an Asian Competitiveness Institute at the LKY School of Public Administration. We discussed Vietnam which he was going to visit and Rwanda which he had been helping. We also talked about the financial crisis. For him, there is no substitute for hard work in developing one's competitiveness.

He gave me a copy of his new book which I'm sure will become another standard reference for business studies.

George Yeo

With Professor Michael Porter

Professor Michael Porter's Book

The start of Pacific Century

Everyone experiences this. We can recall some parts of a tune vividly that we have heard decades ago. Be it an advertisement jingle. A school concert performance. A song we heard it in the radio. A segment of a TV drama theme. The fragments are somehow lodged in your brains and somehow you are too busy to find out exactly where that piece of fragmented music come from.

When I was a kid, I remember watching this particular Hong Kong produced historical drama about the start of the Tang Dynasty. I vague remembered the lyrics of the theme song " Liang (i think) flowers fall, Li flowers open". The theme suggested that when one family or country weakens, another will be ready to fill the void as part of nature.

My investment bank friend told me over several drinks (trust me, you need a few stiff drinks after the last few tumoulos weeks if you work in the financial markets) that he believed the Pacific Century has started. It started when CNN was breathlessly reporting on the US financial crisis and the horizontal scrolling screen at the bottom announced "China made its first spacewalk". He added, although I think the story by now is most likely apocryphal, that he flipped another channel and saw Tina Fey of Saturday Night Life impersonating a candidate. That was the moment of the beginning of the Pacific Century.

Thomas Friedman wrote a great article about the financial crisis. Think about it, the wiseman says. The railroad crisis in 1930s killed a few speculators but United States built itself a nation-wide transport system that enabled commerce to really take off. The dot.com killed a few analysts reputations but United States inherited an information highway that enabled companies like Google, Yahoo, Apple and Microsoft to innovate and reign supreme in their respective fields. And of course the subprime and credit derivatives crisis will kill a few institutions and injure several economies severely but it will enable...nothing. That is the scary bit.

What if it enables China to buy more US Treasuries? What if it enables China to export inflation? (Why export inflation? The world has been able to keep goods' prices low by manufacturing in china with its abundance of cheap manual labour. And in a perverse sense, China is importing inflation due to the rapid demands for resources and development in China. Now the table is turned. China will buy up valuable assets all over the world and hence, exporting inflation. Can you truly be independent and aspire to be the land of the free when you owe a lot of money to your neighbour? What if it enables Standards & Poor to lower US T-bills rating from Triple A. As one commentator said in a BBC interview, "Triple A rating is not sacred. You don't have a right. You need to earn it... like everybody else."

Think of that scenario and you realise the world may have changed .. not with a whimper but with a painful groan.

Harold

The real world test - Apple iPhone versus the Blackberry Curve

With all the bad financial news and doomsday analysis, lets talk about something trivial.

I use two cell phones. I am in communication with my team, customers, shareholders, auditors, lawyers, investors and my precocious daughter 15/7 (as in 15 hours/7 days) via cellphone/SMS/i-Chat/Emails. This is not something I am proud of. One of my favorite sayings is that only the Poor need to talk so much. The rich can enjoy the peace and tranquility of the sound of silence because they can afford to switch off their communication devices.

Phone A is the basic phone. Phone B is the PDA cum phone. The combination is self explanatory.

I started using the iPhone (Phone A) last year. Got it from Redmond, Seattle (i know.. getting an Apple device in the heart of Microsoft land.. little ironies) while attending a Microsoft conference. Our company has been using the Blackberry (Phone B) for a few years. Our current model is the Blackberry Curve. Among ourselves, we call it the Slaveberry. My kickass Finance team and M&A team are obsessed about it. Just to illustrate - I wake up at 5am for a glass of juice and my deputy has already sent 10 emails at 4am reminding me the things I have to do today.

This is the perfect usability TEST between iPhone and the Blackberry. To really test whether a phone or communication device is superior, you can't use it for a few days and write a review that Device A is better than Device B just by comparing the features. You have to use it a couple months, drop it a few times, curse at it, exhaust its battery, expose it to sun, a bit of bathwater, download a few updates BEFORE you can conclude that the phone is good or bad.

My criteria for the winner is amateurishly simple . If i spend more time using one phone, that particular phone is declared the winner. And the clear winner is the Blackberry Curve.

It is not that the Apple iPhone is over-hyped and its many features overblown. I want to like the iPhone. I want the iPhone to win. I want to join the chorus of thousands of journalists and reviewers who labeled it the sexiest device on Earth. It is a very good phone but the Blackberry Curve is just better and a more effective device. I find myself using the Blackberry as time progresses and now I don't even see the Blackberry as PDA (Phone B). It is THE DEFAULT communication device. The Apple iPhone, despite its coolness, is now a backup phone. I use it when I could not find my Blackberry. I use it when the Blackberry's battery runs low. I use it when I realize the Blackberry is in my pants while I am driving...

The next question is why the Blackberry is a better device?

1. The Blackberry has a tactile keyboard. I want to be sure what I type. I don't want some HAL9000 algorithm to second-guess me. I don't want to retype a word if i can help it.

2. The Blackberry can cut and paste. Sometimes I need to send a SMS to Person A but I do not wish to blindly forward the same SMS to Person B. With cut and paste, I can quickly edit a SMS. Likewise for emails.

3. The Blackberry has superb search function. When I search for, say, Boston, all I need to do is type BOSTON and every person whose address book has the word Boston will appear. On top of that if i click the person's name, the Blackberry will remember which phone I last dialed since he probably has a home/office/cell/fax number. It is these little attention to details that make the Blackberry the superior phone.

4. The Blackberry's battery lasts longer. Self explanatory.

5. The Blackberry is lighter and tougher. It has undergone the Real Life Torture Test and been proven to withstand physical abuses like accidental drops, knocks and spills.

6. The Blackberry has far less chances of accidental dailing someone. The moment you slot your Blackberry into the holster which has a magnetic clip that is detectable by the Blackberry, the Blackberry will be key-locked. Or you can keylocked the Blackberry within say 1 minute of non-usage. The iPhone has the non-activity keylock feature BUT as a touch screen device, you may accidentally touch the Dial onscreen "button" and dial someone while you are putting it into your pocket. So many friends and relatives of iPhone users have received such mysterious calls from the iPhones. The Blackberry is not perfect too. It has a one-touch set up dial feature and if you depress a key long enough, it will store a dialed number and becomes the hotkey for that phone number. The next time you depress the same key accidentally, it will dial that person. Extremely dangerous stuff. 

Last but not least, the Blackberry Curve is a serious business oriented device. Sure, the babe at Balaclava or St James Powerstation will think you are a pathetic corporate slave chained to your emails, excel spreadsheets and powerpoints. But the good news is that you got a job! In the months to come, having a job is sexy. With the iPhone, you can play some downloaded Applestore accelerometer-enhanced games and show some mindless iPhone applications like swirling milk on the screen and the babe will wonder - can you afford the next monthly phone bill?

Having said that (and to spare myself answering angry emails from Apple fanatics), the iPhone is a perfect conversation starter with anyone. "Wow, cool phone, where did you get it?" "Did it cost you a bomb?" (The answer is invariably "no" despite the fact that he has already pawned his organs.) "That's the cool game! Where can I download it?" "Never see a protective shield that looks so cool, dont think they sell it at Sim Lim?" "The phone looks cool but i prefer workhorses like a simple Nokia..." You can chat up with anyone who has an iPhone; it is perfectly polite and non-threatening to start an "iPhone" conversation. In an era in which we spend so little time communicating directly with human beings, the iPhone is priceless from that perspective.

Ok, carry BOTH phones... if you have deep pockets (bad.. bad.. pun indeed).

Harold Fock

The worker bee WINNER! (www.blackberry.com)

   

The Conversation STARTER! (www.apple.com)

Global Financial Crisis

It was supposed to be a joyous celebration of the 100th Anniversary of the Harvard Business School with an international symposium covering topics like globalisation and emerging markets. But the financial crisis has cast a dark cloud over all discussions. No one could have ever imagined that mighty institutions like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and AIG could all be brought to their knees within such a short time.

Amidst the confusion, there is a woeful lack of global leadership. The problem is greatly compounded by the coming Presidential elections in the US. Whoever gets elected will have to articulate early his strategy. Whether global financial markets can wait till Nov 4 is another matter. In Europe, there is no consensus. Japan and China have every interest to go along with a coordinated approach but such an approach must first be identified.

Someone asked what the role of the IMF is in such a crisis. Unfortunately, the magnitude of the crisis is way beyond the capabilities of the IMF to put right. While US leadership is a precondition, the other major economies must also be brought along. In the meantime, the lack of clarity makes markets nervous. What we don't need now is a long interregnum in the US leading to a crisis in forex markets.

The global economy is turning down sharply. There is not going to be a quick fix. In such times, we have to go back to basics. There is no short cut to sustainable progress. This means hard work, frugality, education, good government, social discipline, strong families. Singapore's conservative instincts should serve us well provided we look after one another.

George Yeo

A Lesson from the US Election - Harder to Hide in the Social Networked World

I watched with a lot of sympathy and a bit of mirth on how Sarah Palin has to endure the media scrutiny on her suitability as the next Vice President of United States. The Saturday Night Live Parodies featuring Tina Fey who impersonated her like a clone, Matt Damon on YouTube questioning if she believed dinosaurs were around 4,000 years ago "I really need to know that.. because she has access to the nuclear codes", the painful interview with CBS' Katie Couric in which she reviewed she might not fully comprehend what the US$700 bil bailout was really about... Even CNN, supposedly above such naughtiness, joined in to mock and skewer her when Jack Cafferty "lost" his broadcasting cool. And the same clip was posted on Youtube and it got more than 2 million hits whithin several days.

I recalled when Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9-11 movie came out and saw those unflattering clips on politicians - my guts instinct was that the visual image would be horrendously damaging to President Bush's bid for his second term. When President Bush was re-elected, the media analysts were quick to pronounce that Video Clips could not Kill the Political Star. I thought I was wrong too. However, that was pre-YouTube, pre-Facebook and pre-Blog. In a movie, unless you film a sequel, there is no immediate follow up. You can't make a political movie and bring out the same arguments, reinforce your views repeatedly because it is a one-hit exposure. But with the social networking empowered Internet, you can.

You can group all your Greatest Hits (say, a really bad TV interview) on your facebook. You can link to others' greatest hits, their most watched lists and even film your own analysis and parodies with easy-to-use bluescreen technology and a video camera. You can mass mail your clips, news and links to your friends and they pass it on like a digital virus. The human info-sphere has evolved and like it or not, this is the way it will be in the years to come.

I wonder how our local politicians will fare in the New New Media world. Religious and community leaders, CEOs and top executives will not be spared. I have started a Facebook network in my own company and I am prepared that someday someone will post an unflattering story or clip about me. The easy way is to censor it and punish the staff and send one of those Dilbetish HR warning emails that everyone hates. The hard way is to make a stand on who you really are and what you truly stand for. You really can't hide. I am human and this is me - strengths, weaknesses, successes and failures, smart moves, wrong calls, exceeding expectations and disappointing limitations. Be True. And no Facebook posting and YouTube parody can ever hurt you... too badly.

Harold Fock

An example of a politician's greatest nightmare

Youtube Link

Philadelphia and American Independence

I spent an afternoon visiting the heritage of American independence at Philadelphia - the Liberty Bell, the Hall where the Declaration of Independence was made on July 4, 1776, also where the American Constitution was signed some years later, the old Supreme Court and Washington Park. It is an inspiring story of how the early colonials struggled for independence and, despite their own divisions, forged a new and remarkable country. That Constitution has remained largely intact for over 200 years. When it was first drawn up, the thirteen states had a population less than Singapore's today. That founding generation was a remarkable group of men who saw far ahead into the future so that what they put together laid the foundation for a continental nation that would one day become the world's pre-eminent superpower.

They often did not agree with one another. A few disliked each other intensely. Not all had happy endings to their lives. But they left a lasting legacy, not only to the American people but to world civilization.

During the US-Singapore Strategic Dialogue in Washington, I made the comment that should one day the earth be in peril and the human race had to create a new colony on another planet, it was more likely that the new society would be organised more like the US than any other existing country on earth. For indeed, the US was created out of disparate groups who came from the Old World in Europe. I thought it necessary to make this point in order to set in perspective rather gloomy discussions about the state of the US today.

In all great underakings, the moment of conception is the most important. Philadelphia provided the crucible.

George Yeo

The Liberty Bell

The Independence Hall

Tomb of the Unknown Soldier of the American Independence

Best Wishes to All

Selamat Hari Raya Aidil Fitri to all Muslim friends and Happy Rosh Hashanah to all Jewish friends!

George Yeo