ASEAN Summit

1. This evening, the Leaders of the ten ASEAN countries endorsed the recommendations of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) on the drafting of the ASEAN Charter. The Group consisted of retired senior statesmen like Tun Musa Hitam, President Fidel Ramos and Pak Ali Alatas. Singapore's representative was DPM Prof Jayakumar. The members of the EPG sat in a row facing the Leaders. Tun Musa Hitam led off. The Leaders then gave their views in turn. Observing all this from behind PM Lee, I sensed a great moment, the conception of something quite historic. In a year's time, the Charter spelling out in legal terms the future of an integrated ASEAN should be signed and sealed in Singapore in time for ASEAN's 40th Anniversary.

2. Getting to this point took some time and a lot of effort. Countries do not come together out of  a sense of love. It is fear that drives us together. In ASEAN's case, it is the challenge of a rising China to our East and a rising India to our West. We are staking out for ourselves a place in the sun. The road ahead will still be long and difficult, but the course has been set. Despite problems big and small, our collective future looks good.

3. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers meet many times a year. As our national interests don't all coincide, it is natural that we don't always agree. Sometimes the disgreements can be quite intense. But, somehow, there's always enough goodwill for us to find reasonable compromises. On many big issues, we now share a common perspective. A strong cameraderic unites us which enables problems to be overcome more easily. This year, the Philippines is in the Chair. Less than a month after a typhoon caused the December meeting to be postponed, all of us are back in Cebu. My good friend, the Philippines Foreign Minister Bert Romulo, is hands-on, making sure that all details are attended to. His people have done a wonderful job setting the stage for our meetings. The Filipinos are a gracious people, always polite and friendly.

4. On the future of Asia, our strategy in ASEAN is clear. We have the ASEAN plus Three meetings which bring ASEAN and Northeast Asia (China, Japan,Korea) together. Last year, we launched the East Asian Summit which encompasses a larger circle including India, Australia and New Zealand - sixteen countries in all. For both sets of meetings, ASEAN is in the driver's seat by common consent. Beyond Asia, we have dialogue relationships with the US, Europe and Russia. While the big powers eye one another warily, they see us as completely unthreatening. We are such nice people in Southeast Asia.

George Yeo

Picture with Bert Romulo and Prince Mohamed

Comments

[Edwin T Y Yeo]

Dear Minister

Given that the potential impact of ASEAN integration will be significant, will the government call for a national referendum before ratifying the charter? In my view, it is not completely clear in the minds of ordinary Singaporeans, just what integration really means. Is it to create an entity like the European Union where there will be a "borderless" region? Will there be regional regulations that individual nations need to adhere to - hence an "ASEAN Parliament" created?

I believe that a national referendum would be appropriate since such an integration could potentially pave the way for substantial changes in our political and social fabric. The referendum will also give the government opportunity to explain the benefits of integration for Singaporeans, and allow Singaporean to debate the issues publicly. Singaporeans whose business and jobs that could be affected (positively or negatively) may also be prepared.

Rgds

Edwin

[George Yeo]

Dear Edwin

ASEAN is a work in process that has gone on for 39 years already. It has helped to keep the peace in Southeast Asia. In the coming years, especially with the adoption of an ASEAN Charter hopefully at the end of this year, the region will become more integrated. There are three broad areas. Politically, we are likely to become closer even though there'll still be problems like the present Thai unhappiness with us over Thaksin's private visit to Singapore. At the UN and other international forums, there is an instinct now to work more closely together especially on international and transboundary issues. Economically, we are already becoming a free trade area for goods. Liberalization of services will take longer. Investments will flow more freely although governments will always want to exercise some control in strategic sectors. Socially and culturally, younger Southeast Asians should feel a stronger sense of ASEAN citizenship.

ASEAN integration will not be like European integration although the EU offers us interesting lessons. For example, we are not likely to contribute to a common budget (like Europe's Common Agricultural Policy) or allow the free movement of people. I doubt we will ever have a common currency. An ASEAN Parliament therefore seems unncecessary to me. What is important is for each member country to ensure that what it agrees to in ASEAN is properly allowed for under national legislation.

As ASEAN integration cannot be reduced to a simple proposition, having a referendum is not feasible. A referendum on the ASEAN Charter will end up being a referendum about one or two issues in it rather than the Charter as a whole. But there could be specific issues (like establishing a common currency or an ASEAN Court of Justice, both most improbable to me) which one day might be put to the population of some or all of the member countries in national referendums.

George Yeo

[Edwin T Y Yeo]

Dear Minister

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my comment here. Truly appreciated!

Thank you also for making the clarifications. What you have said about the integration is not of total surprise.

From your broad description, it would seem to suggest that the 2015 agenda is a high-level one that is but one or two steps forward from where we already are today, albeit in a formal way. In my opinion, we are still rather far away from the kind of integration that would have a real dramatic impact on our political, economic and social fronts in a direct and immediate manner.

Perhaps, then, it is a question of sooner or later.

Importantly, Singaporeans should be concerned that integration does not result in an overnight exodus of investment capital and jobs out of Singapore (a la US-Mexico & West Europe-East Europe examples). Singapore's situation appears especially precarious for the lack of size and other natural resources. I guess Singaporeans need to be well-informed so as to prepare themselves for the worst case scenario.

Rgds

Edwin