1. The growing Sunni-Shi'i divide is worrying and has repercussions on us in Singapore. When the Americans invaded Iraq to remove Saddam, they thought that Shiite Iraqis would be Arab first. After all, when Saddam invaded Iran in the 80's, many of his soldiers were Shiite. But the picture is not so clear now. For many years, Iran had provided refuge to Shiites fleeing from Saddam's oppression including senior Shi'i religious leaders. No one doubts that Iran today has significant influence in Iraq. As one Arab minister told me, the Americans have given the Iranians a card they did not have before.
2. The recent war in Lebanon was in fact between Israel on the one side and Syria and Iran on the other. Without the full backing of Syria and Iran, Hezbullah could not have become such a formidable force. Many Sunni Arab leaders, fearful of the growing Shiite influence, had quietly hoped that the Israelis would deal a crippling blow to Hezbullah. It was only after the Arab street reacted fiercely to the scenes of destruction in southern Beirut and southern Lebanon that their governments spoke up against Israel. With the ceasefire in place (for now) and the Arab street quiet again, Sunni Arab concern about growing Iranian influence in the Middle East is rising. As a result, the pattern of alliances in the region is changing.
3. In his book 'the Shia Revival', Vali Nasr writes about the dramatic shift in the historical balance of power between Sunnis and Shi'is. It is a book worth reading. As with all such shifts in the past, there will be a contest. With Iran determined to pursue nuclear technology (claiming that it is only for peaceful purposes), this particular contest will have fateful consequences not only for the Middle East but for the whole world. So much of global energy comes from that region.
George Yeo
Hi Minister,
Iraq is in a state of civil war. The US and its closest allies are stuck in a quagmire that even their most optimistic advisors cannot now deny.
The fact that as scores of Iraqis and foreignors die daily without anyone else in the world batting an eyelid, shows that the situation is now beyond hope and that Rumsfeld does not have a clue how to turn the situation around. We just have to wait for the next US Presidential elections to come around and whoever wins (the side is unimportant), the new president will then do the thing that needs to be done and pull the plug out and withdraw.
Tragically, what was predicted would happen ( of course with 20/20 hindsight) has happened and US has opened a can of worms, lighted a power keg ( or any analogy you like)and the MidEast is unstable, unpredicatable and we don't know who is who and one whose side.
Welcome to reality, everyone.
Sorry I don't have answers ( neither has anyone),
Cheers
Dr.Huang Shoou Chyuan
Posted by: Dr.Huang | October 17, 2006 at 09:54 PM
what repercussions specifically? care to explain? kindly refrain from making cryptic statement without qualification.
Posted by: blackfeline | October 21, 2006 at 11:51 AM
Sadly, I think that Iran will build a nuclear weapon, regardless of how the global response to North Korea goes.
We could easily see nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, with very unpredictable consequences. :(
Posted by: Speranza Nuova | October 21, 2006 at 07:20 PM
What nuclear proliferation in the Middle East if Iran builds those weapons? Israel already has those nuclear weapons. If there is any proliferation at all, it has already started.
Posted by: newbie | November 01, 2006 at 05:01 PM