Europe in 21st Century Asia
This is a special year during which we celebrate 50 years of the EU, 40 years of ASEAN and 30 years of EU-ASEAN partnership. A strong EU-ASEAN partnership will not only benefit both regions, it will add to stability in Asia and the world.
A Re-Emergent Asia
Asia is re-emerging on the global stage and the manner in which it re-emerges will affect the whole world. Indeed, this will be a major theme in global politics and economics in the 21st century.
After a few centuries bringing modernity to Asia, often by force but also by ideas, the European powers retreated from Asia as empires were dismantled after the end of the Second World War. While European companies remained behind and continued to increase their presence, Europe's political role in Asia diminished. It was the US which became the key player, fighting wars in Korea and Indo-China, and policing the peace during the Cold War.
With the end of the Cold War and the rise of China and India, a new global landscape is appearing. During the Cold War, we had the simplicity of bipolarity. After it ended, during the transitional phase, the US was the sole hyperpower but we are now seeing the limits of hard power. Slowly but inexorably, a multi-polar reality is breaking through. It will be a more complicated world with states taking more nuanced positions and non-state players playing bigger roles.
Asia, with more than half the world's population, is on the move. Once the per capita income of China reaches that of Taiwan today, its economy will be considerably bigger than that of the US or the EU. This is likely to be achieved by the middle of the century. The relationship between the US and China is the single most important relationship in the world today. Upon it is determined the larger question of war and peace. That relationship has improved with the problem of cross strait relations under control and the Chinese playing a helpful role in North Korea. As the links binding these two countries multiply, the risk of a rupture between them should decrease.
India is also taking off. Although India's political and social structures make it more difficult for India's growth rate to match that of China's, India as a democracy is arguably more stable in the long term. It is now on a secular growth trend and can achieve 8% to 9% growth a year, if not more, on a sustained basis. India's infrastructure should improve year by year. India's population is relatively young and will outstrip that of China after 2030.
ASEAN’s Role in the Asian Architecture
In between China and India are the ten countries of ASEAN with a combined population of over 500 million people. This is a region of islands and peninsulas which has been influenced by the great civilizations of East Asia and South Asia over the centuries. Although the ten countries are diverse in their religious beliefs and political systems, we have been moving closer together in the last 40 years. After the interruption of the Asian Financial Crisis, the region is growing smartly again. Vietnam, in particular, is making rapid strides in the footsteps of China.
The rise of China and India is a huge challenge to us in ASEAN. Either we become more integrated and united or we will be at a severe disadvantage relative to them. In response to this, the Leaders of ASEAN formed an Eminent Persons Group more than a year ago to make recommendations on the drafting of an ASEAN Charter which will become a Constitution for our political, economic and cultural integration. In January this year, the Leaders endorsed the recommendations of the Eminent Persons and the Charter is now being drafted as a legal document. We expect the Leaders to sign it in November this year at their next
Summit in Singapore.
ASEAN plays an important role in the stability of Asia. It is a strategic region with abundant natural resources through which some of the most important waterways in the world pass. An ASEAN which is neutral and friendly to all the major powers is in everyone’s interest. In recent years, ASEAN has played an active role in building a regional architecture drawing in all the major powers through concentric and overlapping circles of political and economic cooperation such as the East Asia Summit.
The Strategic Presence of the United States
The role of the US in Asia will remain critical for decades to come. Any sudden reduction in the US presence in the Pacific and Indian Oceans will have an immediate destabilizing effect. For this reason, no major initiative is undertaken in Asia today without the US being an explicit or an implicit consideration.
Every year, easily over a hundred thousand Asian students go to the US to study. Many stay on to work in the US. Not a few become Americans and Asian-Americans already make a major contribution to the US economy. The result of all this is an intricate web of relations holding the two sides of the Pacific together. Although the cultural links across the Pacific are not and will never be as strong as those across the Atlantic, the trade volume across the Pacific overtook that across the Atlantic many years ago.
Need for Greater European Involvement
Europe does not enter the strategic calculation of countries in Asia to the same degree as that of the US even though Europe’s overall economic weight is not less than that of the US. The political under-representation of Europe is a loss to us in ASEAN. ASEAN will enjoy more options and greater manoeuvring space if Europe is also a major political player in our region. We will be better diversified in a strategic sense.
Europe's interest in ASEAN has tended to be narrow and episodic. When the Boxing Day tsunami hit Indonesia and Thailand, the European countries responded with heartwarming generosity. On the peace process in Aceh, Europe played a major role. Concerns about human rights in Myanmar have become a domestic political issue in some European countries. What is lacking is a long-term strategic view of ASEAN as a key piece in the Asian puzzle.
In the last year, the European Union has made some important moves in engaging ASEAN. Negotiations for an EU-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement have begun but I hope that the problem of Myanmar will not prove an insuperable obstacle. If Europe pursues the FTA with a strategic objective in mind, we can find a way around the problem of Myanmar. The EU has also indicated an interest in acceding to ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation which we warmly welcome. This year, ASEAN and the EU will be celebrating the 30th Anniversary of its Dialogue Partnership with a Commemorative Summit Meeting.
Europe's engagement of ASEAN should go much deeper. Historically, except for Thailand, the countries of Southeast Asia were all colonies of European powers. The European heritage throughout Southeast Asia is profound and is an asset for the development of our future relationship. Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei, for example, benefited greatly from the institutional inheritance we received from the British. The European colonial legacy is partly the reason why ASEAN countries find in European integration an inspiration for our own integration. Some members of the High Level Task Force drafting our ASEAN Charter have visited Berlin and Brussels, precisely to learn from the EU experience. I don't think our integration will ever go as far as Europe’s but your footsteps, including your missteps, are a guide to us in our journey. The European Commission has been most helpful to us. Last year, the Eminent Persons appointed by the ASEAN Leaders received excellent briefings on the European Union in Brussels which influenced them in the way they crafted their recommendations.
The greatest achievement of European integration is the peace which it has brought upon this continent, a period of peace never seen before in its entire history. ASEAN has a similar mission of peace in Southeast Asia. If we can keep our peace for another generation, and we in turn helping to keep the larger peace in Asia, the world will be transformed. Some two billion people will be brought out of the depths of poverty. The European idea, of sovereign nations surrendering some of their prerogatives in order to achieve a higher common good, has universal applicability. Without the underlying respect for diversity which is at the heart of the European construction, we can never live in peace with one another anywhere in the world.
The rise of Asia will be a challenge to Europe in this century. How Europe engages an adolescent Asia and influences it will be of utmost importance. There was a time in the past when Europe set for itself a missionary role in Asia. The result was not an Asia which looked like Europe but a modern Asia which is becoming both a friend and a competitor. What is important is for the friendship to be deepened and for the competition to be set within a framework of political and economic rules so that conflicts and disagreements are kept within civilized boundaries. Asia is still in a malleable phase of its development. The way Europe and the US manage Asia in the coming years will have a major effect on how Asia itself evolves. It is crucial for the G7 or G8 countries to engage China and India much more as their economies become more intertwined with those of the advanced economies. For example, energy security, the global environment, climate change, sustainable development, pandemics and jihadi terrorism are important common concerns.
In ASEAN, you will find a friend and a partner on all these issues.
George Yeo
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